Bill Gates is the second wealthiest man on the planet with a net worth in excess of $90 billion.
Just like you and me, Bill wants to earn a return on his pile of cash. Of the 17 publicly-traded companies held in the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust, 12 pay dividends.
In this article, I track and analyze changes in Bill Gates’ portfolio of dividend stocks.
The fourth quarter of 2017 was uneventful. No new companies were added to the portfolio, and all of the trust’s existing core holdings were largely unchanged.
Gates’ trust trimmed its position in Microsoft (MSFT) by 14%. Microsoft appeared as a new position in the second quarter of 2017 and was likely transferred from Bill Gates’ direction ownership to his trust instead, so you can’t read much into this activity.
The only other move in the trust was a 7% decrease in its shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Similar to Microsoft, the trust’s stake in Warren Buffett’s company has fluctuated up and down each quarter, so these trades are likely being driven by non-fundamental reasons.
Before analyzing the portfolio’s holdings, let’s review the trust’s investment strategy.
Bill Gates’ portfolio is managed by Michael Larson, who has overseen Bill Gates’ personal wealth since 1994.
Bill Gates’ Investment Strategy
Larson maintains a very low-key profile and runs a conservative strategy and invests across a wide range of assets including real estate, private equity, bonds, and publicly-traded stocks.
His operations are run out of an unmarked building in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland, and his employees who leave are typically required to sign confidentiality agreements.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Larson’s relatively conservative strategy delivered losses during the financial crisis in 2008 that were less than the 27% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Since 1995, Larson’s returns have outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 1% per year with presumably much lower volatility.
Larson is a value investor at heart and focuses on buy-and-hold investing. Most quarters, he does not make any trades. He looks for simple, high quality companies that he believes are reasonably priced. Most of these companies are considered blue-chip dividend stocks.
Few of these high quality businesses exist and trade at fair prices, which is why Bill Gates’ portfolio of stocks is concentrated in a small handful of companies.
Analyzing Bill Gates’ Portfolio of Dividend Stocks
I analyzed each of Bill Gates’ stock picks that pay a dividend, starting with his highest-yielding dividend stocks.
For each investment held by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust, I review how the company makes money and why Bill Gates might have been attracted to the company.
My analysis of Bill Gates’ portfolio is updated each quarter when new information about his holdings is released.
February 2018 Portfolio Update
True to his buy-and-hold philosophy, Michael Larson turned in another uneventful quarter.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust only made two transactions, trimming its position in Berkshire Hathaway by 5 million shares (a 7% decrease) and reducing its position in Microsoft (MSFT) by 14%.
Berkshire Hathaway remains Bill Gates’ largest position, accounting for 47.6% of the trust’s portfolio of equities. Microsoft remains the trust’s second-largest position at 15.5% of the portfolio after it was added during the second quarter of 2017.
However, investors should note that Cascade was not buying new shares of Microsoft. Bill Gates personally holds more than 100 million shares of his firm and appears to have simply transferred millions of shares to Cascade last year, perhaps for estate planning purposes.
Excluding the trim of Microsoft and the increased stake in Berkshire Hathaway, Larson’s last notable move happened during the second quarter of 2015 when he more than doubled his stake in Liberty Global’s LiLAC shares (ticker symbols LILA and LILAK), which are related to Liberty Global’s Latin American and Caribbean operations.
Many of Larson’s holdings have exposure to consumption growth in emerging markets as he is clearly playing the long game.
Perhaps more interesting is what Larson did not do during the quarter. While Warren Buffett is on the verge of completely exiting his stake in Wal-Mart, Larson continues to hold the company. Wal-Mart accounted for 4.3% of his portfolio of publicly-traded stocks at the end of the fourth quarter.
Looking at the rest of the holdings, Crown Castle remains the highest-yielding stock in Bill Gates’ portfolio, followed by United Parcel Service and Coca-Cola FEMSA.
Let’s take a closer look at Bill Gates’ dividend stocks:
1: Crown Castle (CCI)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 2.2%
Dividend Yield: 3.9% Forward P/E Ratio: 19.7x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Real Estate Industry: Wireless Communications
Crown Castle is a real estate investment trust and the largest provider of shared wireless infrastructure in the U.S.
The company owns approximately 40,000 towers and more than 60,000 miles of fiber that supports small cell networks.
Crown Castle leases its towers to wireless carriers, which use the company’s infrastructure to provide wireless services to consumers and businesses.
Tenants deploy communications equipment, cables, and antennas on Crown Castle’s towers that transmit signals between the tower and customers’ mobile devices.
Approximately 90% of Crown Castle’s revenue is generated from the big four wireless carriers, and the company is completely focused on the U.S. wireless market.
Crown Castle’s business model has several appealing characteristics. First, its business model has excellent visibility.
Over 80% of the company’s revenue is recurring, and most of its site rental revenue results from long-term leases with initial 10-year terms and five-year renewal periods thereafter.
Crown Castle’s leases also have built-in price escalators, which have historically added around 3% to the company’s annual earnings growth.
Most importantly, there are not viable substitutes for the company’s wireless infrastructure today. Carriers need Crown Castle to operate their businesses, which has helped the company enjoy a non-renewal rate of just 2% over the last five years.
As data demand continues to increase, Crown Castle’s earnings have solid growth potential as the company fills out more of its towers.
Crown Castle began paying dividends in early 2014 and has since tripled its quarterly payout from 35 cents per share to $1.05.
The company targets 7-8% long-term annual growth in dividends per share going forward and should seemingly have little problem hitting this goal.
Crown Castle’s healthy dividend is supported by its reasonable dividend payout ratio and high incremental profit margins (adding more tenants to existing towers requires very little capital).
For investors seeking a high dividend growth REIT, Crown Castle is one to keep an eye on. American Tower (AMT) has many similarities but is much more international and targets 20% annual dividend growth. You can learn more about American Tower here.
Read More: Our Analysis of Crown Castle
2: United Parcel Service (UPS)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 2.0%
Dividend Yield: 3.4% Forward P/E Ratio: 14.7x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Transportation Industry: Air Freight Transport
UPS was founded in 1907 and has grown to become the world’s largest package delivery company. In 2016, UPS delivered approximately 4.9 billion packages and documents in more than 220 countries and territories.
Domestic package delivery services account for just over 60% of total revenue. International package delivery services generated another 21% of revenues, and supply chain and freight businesses make up the remaining 16% of sales.
UPS’s vast supply chain and logistics network creates a durable competitive advantage. The company has more than 100,000 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles to accompany its 237 UPS jet aircraft.
The company also has nearly 5,000 UPS Stores, over 38,000 UPS Drop Boxes, and more than 24,000 UPS Access Point locations. Thousands of touch points and various delivery modes allow UPS to more efficiently deliver packages than smaller rivals.
Replicating the company’s assets would be extremely expensive and take years of time. Furthermore, new competitors would lack the shipping volumes needed to cover the costs of such a large delivery network.
It’s hard to imagine a new company beating the convenience and low-cost shipping benefits offered by UPS. UPS should also benefit from e-commerce growth as more packages need to be shipped around the world, even if Amazon successfully launches its own delivery service for businesses.
UPS has paid uninterrupted dividends for more than four decades and raised its dividend every year since 2010. The company’s dividend has more than quadrupled since 2000.
Management has historically increased the dividend by 8-9% per year over the last decade, and UPS’s healthy payout ratio near 55% provides room for continued dividend growth.
Read More: Our Analysis of United Parcel Service
3: Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 1.6%
Dividend Yield: 2.4% Forward P/E Ratio: 22.8x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Consumer Staples Industry: Soft Drinks
Coca-Cola FEMSA began operations in 1890 and is the largest franchised company bottling Coca-Cola products. The company bottles more than 100 brands of beverages and serves over 350 million consumers. Sparkling beverages account for close to 80% of total volume.
Coca-Cola FEMSA primarily operates in Latin America and Southeast Asia and accounts for one of every eight Coca-Cola products sold around the world. Coca-Cola (KO) owns approximately 28% of the company.
Coca-Cola FEMSA was likely an attractive investment for Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust because it is clearly a durable business with more than 125 years of operating history. The company benefits from selling Coca-Cola branded products and is an essential partner for Coke.
As the largest bottler, Coca-Cola FEMSA has the necessary economies of scale to efficiently produce and distribute beverages for Coke.
The company’s geographic footprint also offers one of the most attractive growth opportunities in the beverage industry because of its concentration in developing economies.
As consumption rises across Mexico and Latin America, Coca-Cola FEMSA’s volumes should rise. Additionally, bottling operations will likely continue to consolidate to make them more productive, providing further opportunities for volume growth.
Coca-Cola FEMSA has paid dividends for more than 20 years and increased its dividend by approximately 19% per year over the company’s last decade.
With a healthy free cash flow payout ratio near 50%, consistent free cash flow generation, and a reasonable balance sheet, the company’s dividend appears to be safe with room to grow.
4: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 1.0%
Dividend Yield: 2.3% Forward P/E Ratio: 11.8x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Drug Store
Walgreens is a global leader in the retail pharmacy market and has more than 13,200 stores in 11 countries. The company’s drugstores sell a wide variety of prescription and non-prescription drugs in addition to consumer products in categories such as beauty, personal care, and grocery.
Walgreens has three business segments. Retail Pharmacy USA accounts for close to 70% of segment income and consists of Walgreens and Duane Reade branded drugstores in the U.S.
Retail Pharmacy International accounts for just fewer than 20% of segment profits and consists of Alliance Boots, one of the largest drugstores in Europe that Walgreens fully acquired in 2014.
Walgreen’s final segment is Pharmaceutical Wholesale, which accounts for about 10% of segment income and supplies medicines and a variety of healthcare products to more than 200,000 pharmacies and other healthcare institutions from more than 350 distribution centers.
Walgreens likely appeals to Bill Gates for several reasons. Increased regulation and falling government reimbursements have put tremendous pressure on companies to take costs out of the healthcare system. As a result, the industry has been consolidating.
Walgreens bought Duane Reade for $1.1 billion in 2010 and acquired a 45% stake in Alliance Boots for $6.7 billion in 2012. The company purchased the rest of Alliance Boots in 2014 to give it a presence in faster-growing international markets and further expand its scale.
With Alliance Boots, Walgreens became the biggest purchaser of generic drugs in the world.
Most recently, Walgreens announced a deal to acquire Rite-Aid for $17.2 billion in 2015. The company conceded to only acquire half of Rite-Aid’s stores and divest 600 locations after regulatory scrutiny, but Walgreens will be able to provide better national coverage for its customers.
By acquiring other drugstores, Walgreens gains substantial cost synergies from procurement savings on the purchase of drugs and merchandise. The company’s economies of scale allow it to offer customers lower costs compared to its smaller rivals.
In addition to economies of scale, Walgreens owns some of the best real estate in the country. More than 75% of the U.S. population lives within five miles of a Walgreens or Duane Reade retail pharmacy, and that number will move up after the Rite-Aid acquisition closes.
It’s easy to understand why Walgreens has one of the most valuable brands in the world.
Finally, Michael Larson might also like Walgreens because the company should benefit as healthcare spending continues to rise to support the growing elderly population and number of insured citizens.
Walgreens dividend growth story has been nothing short of outstanding, too. The company has increased its dividend for more than 40 consecutive years and paid uninterrupted dividends for over 80 consecutive years.
The company’s dividend has compounded by 17.6% per year over its last 10 fiscal years and should continue enjoying strong growth thanks to its low payout ratio and predictable business model.
Walgreen’s stock has suffered in recent months as investors worried about the risk posed by Amazon. You can learn more at the link below.
Read More: Our Analysis of Walgreens
5: Caterpillar (CAT)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 6.7%
Dividend Yield: 2.0% Forward P/E Ratio: 17.3x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Industrial Products Industry: Construction and Mining Machinery
Caterpillar primarily manufactures construction and mining equipment, diesel and gas engines, industrial turbines, and locomotives. Approximately 85% of the company’s operating income comes from its Construction Industries and Energy & Transportation segments.
In addition to heavy equipment sales, Caterpillar generates a significant amount of revenue from higher-margin less volatile aftermarket parts and components. However, the company does not disclose how much revenue is from its aftermarket business.
The company is also very global with more than 50% of its sales generated outside of North America.
Caterpillar’s competitive advantages are derived from its reputation for quality and global scale.
The company’s success starts with its dealers. Caterpillar sells its products to dealers who sell them to end users across different markets. Caterpillar’s global network of more than 175 independent dealers is second to none – the company’s largest competitor (Komatsu) is about half of its size.
Having the biggest dealer network assures customers that their equipment will remain up and running. A machine that breaks can stop an entire job and make or break a project’s financial and operational objectives.
Large dealers with plenty of parts and technicians are a key selling point for customers because they can respond more rapidly and cost-effectively to machine breakdowns.
Lower-priced Asian competitors lack a global dealer support network and have struggled to take share from Caterpillar. In fact, Caterpillar has increased its machine market share for five years in a row.
Caterpillar’s dividend has also remained intact for now despite the commodity slump in recent years. The company has paid a dividend every quarter since 1933 and has raised its dividend for more than 20 consecutive years.
After a two-year freeze, management finally raised the dividend by 1.3% in June 2017. With end markets beginning to recover more strongly, more meaningful dividend increases could be ahead.
The stock has rallied sharply over the past year as the global economy has shown signs of improvement, commodity prices have somewhat bounced back, and U.S. infrastructure spending could rise.
In fact, Caterpillar now expects to record its first year-over-year revenue increase since 2012.
Read More: Our Analysis of Caterpillar
6: Wal-Mart (WMT)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 4.3%
Dividend Yield: 2.0% Forward P/E Ratio: 21.1x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Supermarkets
As the largest brick-and-mortar retailer in the world, Wal-Mart hardly needs an introduction. The company’s general merchandise stores serve more than 260 million customers. Wal-Mart’s largest product categories are grocery (56% of U.S. sales), health & wellness (11%), and general merchandise (33%).
Wal-Mart has over 11,000 stores located across 27 countries and generates about 40% of its sales outside of the U.S. with Mexico, Latin America, and Brazil accounting for the majority of its international business.
Wal-Mart’s moat is driven by the company’s sheer size. With more than $485 billion in sales last fiscal year, Wal-Mart has the purchasing power necessary to be the genuine price leader in many merchandise categories. Few companies will be able to compete with Wal-Mart’s scale in the brick-and-mortar space.
Wal-Mart’s ability to manage its large size is another advantage. With millions of SKUs and operations spanning the globe, finding qualified suppliers and sourcing its products are no small feats. The company’s strategically located distribution facilities and supply chain know-how give it an edge.
The company’s brand recognition is another competitive advantage. Consumers associate Wal-Mart with value and are likely located within a reasonable distance of one of the companies’ stores.
Conservative investors can also appreciate the non-discretionary mix of Wal-Mart’s business. Grocery items account for the majority of Wal-Mart’s sales in the U.S., which helped the company power through the last recession (sales and earnings grew each year).
Wal-Mart has increased its dividend for more than 40 consecutive years to approach Dividend King status, but the business has seen its dividend growth rate slow to a low-single digit pace in recent years.
The company has dealt with earnings growth challenges in recent years resulting from increased e-commerce competition and rising labor and healthcare costs, which are likely reasons why Warren Buffett has decided to exit his position in Wal-Mart.
Read More: Wal-Mart Dividend Stock Analysis
7: Waste Management (WM)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 6.1%
Dividend Yield: 2.0% Forward P/E Ratio: 21.1x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Business Services Industry: Waste Removal Services
Waste Management is the largest integrated waste management company in North America and services over 21 million residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers.
The company generates revenue by entering into contracts with customers to collect, transport, process, store, and dispose of their waste.
To carry out its operations, Waste Management owns a wide variety of assets, including landfills, truck fleets, transfer stations, recycling facilities, processing plants, and more.
Waste Management gains several advantages from being the largest player in the industry, including ownership of hard-to-replicate assets.
Waste Management owns 252 landfills, more than its next two largest competitors combined. There are only so many places that garbage collection companies can park trash. Many of Waste Management’s competitors must use the company’s landfills and pay the company a “tipping fee” to deposit their trash.
Waste Management’s key assets, dense waste collection network, and tipping fees allow it to maintain a lower cost profile than its peers. This results in more waste volumes from customers (greater route density) and higher returns on its capital.
Smaller rivals and new entrants lack the scale needed to construct their own trash disposal facilities and are challenged to win business from Waste Management, which maintains multi-year contracts with customers.
Trash collection is also a fairly recession-proof service that results in steady earnings. While growth prospects aren’t overly exciting, Bill Gates likes highly predictable businesses.
Turning to the dividend, Waste Management has increased its dividend for 14 consecutive years. The company’s dividend has low- to mid-single digit growth potential and is extremely safe thanks to Waste Management’s healthy payout ratio, consistent free cash flow generation, and strong financial ratios.
Read More: Our Analysis of Waste Management
8: Microsoft (MSFT)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 15.5%
Dividend Yield: 1.8% Forward P/E Ratio: 24.3x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Technology Industry: Computer Software
While Microsoft is now the second-largest position in Cascade’s publicly-traded stock portfolio, it remains by far the biggest contributor to Bill Gates’ total net worth.
Bill Gates founded Microsoft in 1975, and the company is most famous for its Windows operating system, which runs over 80% of the world’s computers.
Microsoft has since significantly diversified its operations into a wide variety of software and hardware business lines, including Office 365 product suites, cloud services, Xbox gaming, and more.
Demand for personal computers has waned in recent years, but Microsoft’s “mobile first, cloud first” turnaround initiated in 2014 has helped the company rejuvenate growth, improve profitability, and shift Microsoft’s business model from one-time software license sales towards a subscription-based revenue stream.
Microsoft began paying dividends in 2003 and has increased its payout by approximately 15% per year over the past decade. With a reasonable payout ratio and expectations for close to double-digit earnings growth going forward, the company can likely grow its dividend at a high-single digit to low-double digit annual rate in the years ahead.
It’s still far from certain that Microsoft’s young turnaround story will live up to investors’ high expectations, especially as the tech landscape continues to rapidly evolve, but the company seems like a reasonable long-term holding to consider for a diversified dividend growth portfolio at the right price.
Read More: Our Analysis of Microsoft
9: Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 5.3%
Dividend Yield: 1.8% Forward P/E Ratio: 14.3x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Transportation Industry: Rail Transportation
Canadian National Railway’s roots can be traced back to the early 1900s. The company was formed through the combination of several financially-challenged railways and was later privatized in 1995.
The company owns and operates roughly 20,000 miles of railroads running across Canada and mid-America. Its network connects the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Each year, Canadian National Railway handles over $250 billion worth of goods and transports more than 300 million tons of cargo for importers, exporters, farmers, retailers, and manufacturers.
By commodity group, 23% of the company’s freight revenue is intermodal, 19% grain & fertilizer, 18% oil & chemicals, 14% forest products, 11% metals & minerals, 7% automotive, and 4% coal.
Roughly one third of the company’s revenue is generated from transborder traffic, 32% overseas traffic, 15% U.S. domestic traffic, and 18% Canadian domestic traffic.
Why does Bill Gates have a large stake in the company? Railroads have proven to be extremely durable businesses for several reasons.
First, they own hard-to-replicate assets. There are only so many railway lines that are needed in the country, and incumbent operators already control the most valuable routes. For example, Canadian National Railway can reach close to 75% of the population in North America with its railway network.
Railroad operators routinely invest close to 20% of their revenue back into capital equipment to keep their lines safe and efficient. Smaller companies cannot afford these massive capital outlays.
The industry has also consolidated to further improve productivity and make it more challenging for new entrants to gain a foothold. The three largest U.S. railroad operators account for more than 60% of total rail miles in the country, for example.
As a result of the industry’s consolidation, hard-to-replicate assets, and essential supply chain services, railways have consistently increased prices by 2-4% per year.
Canadian National Railway is one of the most productive railway operator in the country and will remain relevant for a very long time.
Warren Buffett also loves railroad operators and acquired Burlingon Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) in 2010 for $34 billion, adding the company to Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio of dividend stocks.
Turning to the dividend, Canadian National Railway has raised its dividend every year since it went public in 1995. Over that time period, the company’s dividend has compounded by about 15% per year.
Despite the slump in commodities in recent year, Canadian National Railway raised its dividend by 20% in 2016, 8% in early 2017, and 10% in early 2018.
Management recently increased the company’s target payout ratio to 35%, which will allow the dividend to grow faster than underlying earnings for a few years to approach its new payout target. Double-digit dividend growth could continue.
Read More: Our Analysis of Canadian National Railway
10: Ecolab (ECL)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 2.2%
Dividend Yield: 1.3% Forward P/E Ratio: 25.7x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Basic Materials Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Ecolab sells a wide range of sanitizers, cleaners, lubricants, cleaning systems, dispensers, water treatment products, and on-site services. Over 90% of Ecolab’s business is a recurring revenue stream (e.g. customers consumer Ecolab’s sanitizers and need to reorder).
The company’s products and services are used by customers in practically every industry (e.g. restaurants, hotels, hospitals, Laundromats, manufacturing plants, oil wells, etc.) to keep their food safe, maintain clean environments, and optimize water and energy use.
Ecolab is in more than 1 million customer locations in 172 countries around the world. Nearly 60% of Ecolab’s revenue is generated in North America. Another 18% is from Europe, 13% from Asia Pacific, and 6% from Latin America.
Ecolab is a fantastic business with an excellent moat. The company maintains more than 7,700 patents covering its unique technologies, which help it sell its solutions at 10-20% price premiums compared to competitors’ offerings.
While Ecolab’s initial cost to customers is higher, its products deliver meaningful savings over time (e.g. less waste, greater energy efficiency) that make them cheaper overall.
However, the company’s biggest advantages are its dependable service quality and people. At the end of the day, Ecolab is selling service and consistency (e.g. food needs to be kept safe, water needs to be kept clean, etc.).
Ecolab has nearly 50,000 employees, and more than half of them are in customer-facing roles. These employees visit customer locations each year and help reinforce the value of Ecolab’s products and systems being used by the customer.
On-site visits also allow Ecolab to cross-sell new products to existing customers and expand the amount of business it does with each one.
Ecolab estimates that its addressable market is $100 billion in size and highly fragmented – Ecolab is the biggest player with less than 15% market share.
Rivals and new entrants are unlikely to break Ecolab’s massive service network, breadth of products and services, and long-standing customer relationships.
Bill Gates likes stable, durable businesses with plenty of opportunity for continued growth, and Ecolab checks all of these boxes.
The company’s dividend track record is also excellent. Ecolab has paid cash dividends on its common stock for 80 consecutive years and increased its dividends paid every calendar year since 1986, making it a member of the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index.
Ecolab’s dividend has compounded at a 13% annual rate over the last 10 years, and management last increased the dividend by 11% in December 2017.
Read More: Our Analysis of Ecolab
11: FedEx (FDX)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 2.9%
Dividend Yield: 0.8% Forward P/E Ratio: 15.2x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Transportation Industry: Air Freight Transport
FedEx began operations in 1973 and has grown to provide transportation delivery services to more than 220 countries and territories.
FedEx Express (express distribution services) accounted for 52% of the company’s revenue last year, followed by FedEx Ground (33% – North American small-package delivery services), FedEx Freight (12% – North American provider of less-than-truckload services), and FedEx Services (3%).
Providing each of these services provides FedEx with an advantage. In fact, over 90% of U.S. revenue comes from customers of two or more operating companies.
As a logistics business, FedEx derives its moat from being a world-class operator with very efficient business processes.
Delivering packages is largely a density game. The operator with the most routes and touch points is able to more efficiently deliver products to save customers time and money.
With one of the largest distribution networks in the industry (e.g. a fleet of more than 47,000 vehicles), FedEx enjoys solid profitability and has proven to be extremely durable.
New competitors would need to spend billions of dollars and take years of time to replicate the company’s distribution network.
FedEx has also increased its dividend for more than 10 consecutive years, making it part of the Dividend Achievers Index.
The company last raised its dividend by 25% in June 2017 and has plenty of room for continued dividend growth thanks to its low dividend payout ratio near 15%.
12: Grupo Televisa (TV)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 1.2%
Dividend Yield: 0.4% Forward P/E Ratio: 35.0x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Radio & TV Broadcasting
Grupo Televisa is a major media company in the Spanish-speaking world, a large cable operator in Mexico, and one of the biggest satellite pay TV systems in Mexico.
The company distributes its content through four broadcast channels in Mexico, over 25 pay-TV brands in Mexico and abroad, and TV networks, cable operators, and over-the-top services in more than 50 countries.
Approximately 38% of Televisa’s operating income is generated from the content it products for free-to-air and pay-TV, mostly in the form of advertising dollars. Cable generates over 30% of operating income and provides video, high-speed data, and voice services to residential and commercial customers.
Sky is a leading direct-to-home satellite TV system that operates in Mexico, Central America, and the Dominican Republic. It has approximately 8 million subscribers and accounted for 25% of Televisa’s operating income last fiscal year.
Why does Bill Gates own Televisa? Most notably, the company’s potential for long-term growth is excellent.
Televisa is a leading producer of Spanish-language content in Mexico and one of the largest in the world. It also owns one of the largest cable operators in Mexico and a leading satellite pay-TV system in the region.
As Latin America enjoys strong population growth in the coming years, demand for Televisa’s media services should expand over time. The company’s content can be consumed by even more customers, and rising consumer wealth in the region should drive higher adoption of pay-TV services.
None of this will happen overnight or in a straight line, but Michael Larson is known for his patience.
Televisa’s dividend history is spotty. The company has declared annual dividends in five of the last six years but is mostly focused on reinvesting for earnings growth at this time.
The stock is most appropriate for investors with a very long holding period and little need for current income today.
Honorable Mention: Arcos Dorados (ARCO)
Percent of Bill Gates’ Portfolio: 0.1%
Dividend Yield: N/A Forward P/E Ratio: 26.1x (as of 2/16/18)
Sector: Consumer Discretionary Industry: Restaurants
Arcos Dorados is the largest McDonald’s franchisee in the world as measured by total sales and number of restaurants.
The company has the exclusive right to own and operate McDonald’s franchises in 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including Brazil and Mexico.
Arcos Dorados went public in April 2011 and operates or franchises more than 2,100 McDonald’s branded restaurants today. Brazil is its largest market and accounts for close to half of the company’s total revenue.
Michael Larson was likely attracted to Arcos Dorados because of its strong global brand (McDonald’s) and leading market position in key emerging markets. As consumption rises in these regions, Arcos Dorados appears well positioned to benefit over time.
Arcos Dorados stopped paying dividends in 2015 because of the adverse impact currency exchange rates and weak emerging markets were having on the business. Management needed to prioritize maximizing free cash flow and cleaning up the balance sheet first.
Arcos Dorados will likely reinstate its dividend one day, but it could be at least a year away. The headwinds impacting the business are largely still in place, but patient long-term investors might want to keep this company on their radar.
Closing Thoughts on Bill Gates’ Portfolio
Bill Gates’ portfolio of dividend stocks is concentrated in companies built for the long term.
Each business has a long operating history and has some combination of hard-to-replicate assets, strong brand recognition, and numerous opportunities for long-term earnings growth. Most of them also have long track records of rewarding shareholders with higher dividends.
If nothing else, Bill Gates’ portfolio underscores the importance of focusing on the long term and refusing to compromise on business quality.